Foreword. PML (N) is
persona of Nawaz Sharif and the way he thinks. Nawaz Sharif's control over
party is giving way against silent coup by the insiders who feel betrayed. None
other but his own sibling tops that list. Nawaz Sharif failed to complete term
for the third time simply because he did not learn from his past mistakes. Usual demons of ego, high-handedness against own institution and poor succession planning led to current woes of Nawaz Sharif.
Prelude. Due to 'conducive' Iftikhar Chaudary and General Kiyani regimes,
NS took office without much ado, however, soon his ‘leadership’ was put to test
when he had to choose new COAS. Like every other general he chose in the past,
NS was daggers-drawn with Raheel Sharif in no time. Hence, the ministers were given 'go ahead' to
dare and belittle Army. Afghan President showed promise to improve relations
with Pakistan but NS (also the Foreign Minister) had other plans. Before we
knew, Ashraf Ghani was sitting in India's lap spitting fire against Pakistan.
Vindictive pursuance of Musharraf's cases 'fruitfully' raised hostility levels.
Outside Pakistan, NS knew well that he could garner Eastern (India only) and
Western support through anti-army narrative which he continues to sell to this
day. If one takes out anti-army narrative from NS’ politics, what would otherwise
be left?
Act-1. In Dharna1, IK climbed the
container but the ‘ladder’ was removed and he didn’t know how to come down. Parliament
became the sanctuary of NS and PPP plugged the holes in Noon’s sinking ship. Owing
to immaturities of IK and evil acumen of ruling party, Army Chief was put on
the spot. Firstly, COAS was requested to mediate then he was requested to stay
silent i.e. ‘Please don’t reveal that fact that you were requested by the govt
to mediate’. But magnitude of APS Peshawar event put political bickering to
rest for then. Lack of govt’s political will to embark upon a wholesome
operation against terrorism pushed Army to announce Zarb-e-Azb and NAP
unilaterally. Sensing political advantage in supporting the operation, govt rallied behind Army and never missed an opportunity to get credit for it.
Act-2. Dawn Leaks was continuation of
NS’ deeply rooted hatred for Army. Mariam and her media cell gang were guilty but
Information Minister and bureaucrats took the brunt. Army ‘rejected’ Govt’s superficial
punitive measures against Dawn Leaks’ culprits, however, in a coup de maître,
retrograded from her stance because writing was already on the wall. Panama python
was rearing to engulf NS and connivers.
Act-3. Plot of Dharna2 was orchestrated
‘elsewhere’; a god-sent opportunity for rudderless politics of PTI. Had it been
for ‘politics’ of IK, this opportunity would have also gone begging. Thanks to
some old score that Naeem Bukhari had to settle with NS, willy-nilly, royal
family ended up in the courts. NS approached the case with lazy arrogance but Panama became a tborn in his side. He wrote to Supreme Court to investigate and
distributed sweets on formation of JIT. But his style of Rajneeti had entered a road with dead end.
Prologue. At the beginning of this
term, succession planning was high on NS’ agenda. With his acumen and
self-serving approach, Mariam Nawaz was the choice. Though she had become a
grandmother by then, but she had never faced real life problems. She had never
heard ‘no’ for an answer, may it me Principle Kinnaird College for admission in
medical college against 650 marks in FSc or her own parents for marriage with Captain Safdar. She only
knew one way of dealing with the things, ‘Stop me if you can’. She was given
too much initiative too early. She had to be removed from youth fund
distribution. Then she came up with the ‘brilliant idea’ of establishing a
media cell in PM House. The idea backfired across the board particularly among
media people. Her father bought journalists by dishing out privileges,
power positions and Lafafas. Rest of the media felt left out, betrayed and antagonized.
Not only political rivals, she even used her media cell to downplay her own
uncle’s work in Punjab. She made more enemies than friends, an expected outcome
from a hot-headed political amatuer. Slowly and surely, she started calling shots in important party
affairs. In the process she surrounded herself with ‘big mouth’ opportunists,
whereas, weighty electables like Ch Nisar etc were repulsed. Since her
launching, after General Elections 2013, majority senior leadership and workers
in Noon had reservations on Mariam Nawaz’s growing control over party. Under
the circumstances, electables could sense that the ‘Noon’s ship’ was bound to
wreck and they started worrying about saving their own political grace in
constituency and country. After disqualification, staring down the barrel, NS
announced to handover party reins to his brother but then he changed his mind. He
put off coronation of Shahbaz Sharif, ensured promulgation of 203, got
himself elected President of the party and went on ‘collision course’ against
his own Army and Judiciary. He missed the train yet again. The only way Muslim
League Noon could make a face saving impression in General Elections 2018 was
under relatively acceptable leadership of Shahbaz Sharif. Although Shahbaz
Sharif, out of sheer frustration unleashed his faithful in the party to raise
the voice in his favour and eventually NS may pass the baton to him yet it might
be too little too late.
Epilogue. NS has a knack of attracting
coups. Having experienced a presidential coup, a military coup and a judicial
coup; there was yet another coup lined up for him i.e. Coup de Noon. Others could be attributed to his uncontrollable ego and disgust for his own Army, the
last one inside his party is direct outcome of his fallible succession plan.
Only
Allah knows the whole truth.