Game of Russian Rouellete - By unknown author

 Copied. Engaging analysis of current political & ‘apolitical’ situation in the country by unknown writer:

*A game of Russian roulette between Zardari and the Establishment with a paralysed and clueless Shahbaz in the middle* -

Over the past few hours, there have been a flurry of developments in every direction, leading to confusion. 

First, a decision of the Supreme Court of Pakistan (SCP) has practically signalled the end of Hamza Shabaz's Government in Punjab and created a precarious situation for his father, Shahbaz Sharif in the Federal Government. 

Next, the return of Hafeez Sheikh points to the secret setup of a caretaker government. 

Third, the suo moto notice of the SCP regarding the cases of Shahbaz Sharif and possible amendments to the NAB law, highlight the response to the nefarious agreements made by Shabaz/Zardari in their all party meeting. 

Last but not least, the Federal Government and its allies publicly talked about completing their term, which would require the support of parties, considered close to the Establishment. 

For example, If we look at the statements from BAP of Balochistan and MQM of Karachi, we might get the impression as though they've not received their orders to abandon the Shabaz Government.

On the other hand, if we look at the recent decisions of the SCP, it would indicate that they have very clear direction to pave the way for a caretaker setup. 

So, what exactly is going on? Is the Establishment trying to bring in a caretaker setup or are they continuing to support the existing Government?

Find out below:

After removing Imran Khan, the plan was to rule comfortably for over an year and then pave the way for new elections, in which IK would be reduced to becoming a leader of a provincial party (KPK), instead of a National party with representation across Pakistan. 

Mqm would bite into the PTI vote in Karachi. PPP would try to regain its lost vote in Punjab, by using turncoats to switch from PTI to PPP and even to PMLN. Balochistan would remain with the Establishment and even in KPK, Khan would face stiff resistance from Maulana Fazl aka Diesel.

However, the above plan took a serious hit after an unexpected turnout of people, across Pakistan. This combined with dissatisfaction within a powerful Institution, gave Imran Khan the ability to fight back, something he's done brilliantly to date. 

The sudden spike in Khan's popularity, created confusion within the ranks of PMLN, leading to paralysis and a failure to enact necessary economic reforms, pushing Pakistan towards a catastrophe. 

In response, the Establishment recalibrated its plans and told the new Government to immediately initiate reforms, give a budget and then announce early elections. Also, if the Shabaz government was not willing to do the above, they were told to handover the reigns to a caretaker setup and go home.

And this is where Zardari enters the picture! 

The PPP leader, apparently advised the Government, to neither enact reforms, nor handover the responsibility to a caretaker setup.

His plan involves, sending Bilawal to the US to ask the IMF to give short-term relief to Pakistan, probably for a couple of months, during which Zardari would gut the NAB and then handover the reigns to a caretaker government. This plan would suit Zardari well, but would be nothing short of playing Russian roulette with Pakistan for the next 2 months, as any short-term measures will exacerbate the crisis.

Pakistan is probably incurring a cost of over 500 million US dollars per month, in oil subsidies. Asking the IMF for a couple of billion US$ for a couple of months, just so Zardari could get his way with NAB is true to his spirit and character. The public statements regarding completing the  term of the Government, is most likely a deceptive tactic to buy enough time to murder NAB.

After being made aware of the above plan by the men in brown, the SCP immediately took suo moto notice and sent a signal to PMLN and PPP that if their plan is to continue Pakistan on a ventilator for the next couple of months, while they get rid of their cases and decapitate NAB, before handing over the government to a caretaker setup, it will not be allowed. The SCP will protect the NAB and FIA.

In addition, the decision regarding "LOTAs" opens the way for the removal of the Shahbaz/Zardari Government through a vote of confidence, if they refuse the offer on the table, which as mentioned earlier is twofold: Either enact reforms, give a budget and then call elections or just hand everything over to the caretaker government. 

Thus, in essence this is now turning into a potential battle between Zardari and the Establishment, which would explain the SCP decisions of the past couple of days. 

In this entire scenario, the PMLN seems completely paralysed. First, they were led by the men in brown to overthrow Khan. Now, they are being led by Zardari, into another mess. Some PMLN members, are aware of the fact that there is no sustainable solution for an oil subsidy of over 500 million USD per month, other then getting rid of it. And there is no economic elixir that would improve Pakistan's economy over the next 12 months. This will be an year of tough reforms, high inflation and little development spending. No temporary measures, as being planned by Zardari are going to benefit the PMLN. However, these voices within the PMLN are seemingly being ignored in favor of the foxy Zardari.

Therefore, whether Zardari succeeds or the Establishment, in either case PMLN has already taken a battering over the past month and now they face 1 of 4 outcomes: 

(a). Survive an year and face a disappointed voter

(b). Survive a few months allowing Zardari his NAB reforms and get clobbered in early elections

(c). Get forced out of power by those who brought you into power

(d). Leave on your own now, leaving behind a month of disaster

Unfortunately, while the above explains the motives behind the recent decisions of the SCP (as a tussle between Zardari and the Establishment), it also highlights the complete chaos in Pakistan at the moment, which was completely avoidable had Imran Khan been allowed to complete his term, just as the PPP and PMLN were allowed to complete their terms, going back to 2008.