We see things with religious and ideological prism. In reality, world work on neither ideology nor values rather power and money (more precisely petrodollar) fundamentals.
Iran has always been a shady player sitting at the cultural fault line of ME and SE Asia. Its strength has always been its deeply embedded Persian identity taking its roots in ancient religion of Zoroastrian. Its nationalistic hubris is devoid of prima facie sectoral identity in the Muslim world. Persian identity is above everything, pretty much like India. And no wonder both get along really well.
Iran’s agency to US is shrouded behind ‘Death to America’ مرگ بر امریکہ slogan. On the face, Iran exports zero litres oil to US. Just last month 87% Iranian oil was exported to China. Iran is traditionally aligned with Russia. India is the only common friend of US & Iran but that doesn’t play out significantly towards Iran’s agency to US. Loads of US sanctions on Iran for not trading oil in USD and its nuclear program. Besides, Iran is not dependent on US for its sustenance and financial visibility like Pakistan.
Explanation to these questions is quite revealing. US hold on ME oil is to get it cheaply but mostly to use it as leverage to hurt Europe and to keep Japan dependant. Through sanctions it prevents Europeans from accessing Iranian oil and weakens them. Iran is used as a scarecrow to maintain US military forces in the gulf, to maintain the insecurity of the Gulf states and Saudis, so they rely upon the US for weapons and security. Iran has worked closely with the US in Iraq, Afghanistan and other areas. The American hold goes back to the Iranian Revolution. Khomeini was in touch with the Americans since the 60’s and in letters published by the BBC was open to US influence over Iran. In 1979, the Americans were instrumental with Khomeini in toppling the British installed Shah. Since then it has been working for US objectives.
Now coming over to Iran’s attacks on neighbouring countries including Pakistan. But before that its Israeli connection is important to understand.
After failure on the battlefield, failure to secure release of the hostages, open confrontation with the Americans on the post Gaza political formula and the rejection of the Palestinian State in return for normalisation with the prize of Saudi Arabia, and the external push by the Americans to change Israeli public opinion through South Africa’s lead at the ICJ accusing Israel of genocide and the American instructions to Iran to threaten Israeli security by conducing a low intensity war through Hezbollah and the Houthi’s and to strike directly soft targets in Syria, Northern Iraq and no man's land in Balochistan on the border with Pakistan to demonstrate its teeth, are all beginning to affect Netanyahu. His war cabinet is starting to fracture and senior military figures both serving and retired, including former Israel army chief and Prime Minister Ehud Barak who in an interview with the Israeli newspaper Haaretz lambasted Netanyahu for his failure and called for elections as Netanyahu’s Likud Party has slumped to its lowest ratings ever and Netanyahu remains deeply unpopular within Israel.
With criminal cases pending, Netanyahu is in no mood for elections and is in survival mode, knowing that his political existence now depends on prolonging the conflict by achieving and making sure the far right minority orthodox Jewish parties which keep him in power are served through implementation of genocide and expulsion of the Palestinians from both Gaza and West Bank enroute to Eretz (greater ) Israel.
Also knowing that Biden is in trouble in the American elections and Trump has a high chance of success, Netanyahu is gambling on Biden reaching out to the Jewish vote and decreasing the pressure on him in the process.
American initiated stick and carrot approach is in motion towards Netanyahu to end the Gaza genocide and capitulate to the American plan. As a result, the Arab proposal for Saudi Arabia to provide full normalisation with Israel in exchange for a “Palestinian State” recognised by Western nations & UN, coincided with Iranian strikes on Syria, Northern Iraq and Pakistan.
Iran’s air strikes were symbolic designed to send a signal to Israel not to conflagrate the regional situation by using soft targets ie American liners and “friendly countries” from which there would be no major spillover.
It was also aimed to cover Iran’s American agency and inaction on Gaza by fooling the Muslim world that it had teeth and was prepared to display its threat to Israel when all along it has been acting in concert with the American plan.
Iran’s actions were also designed to calm public anger at the regimes failure to prevent the recent bomb attack in Iran which killed 84 people as well as the killing of senior generals actualized by Balochistan movements operating from Pakistani territory. The fact that the strikes were symbolic is clear from the softness of the diplomatic fallout, with Pakistan’s counter response and strike in Iranian territory also symbolic in order to quell internal voices with the New York Times revealing that both Pakistan and Iran are now cooperating on the Balochistan border issue and the terrorist ground.
No surprises there that tit for tat military strikes on the Balochistan border between Pakistan and Iran leading to a fake diplomatic row has quickly calmed down and relations reverted to normal with some sabre rattling by Pakistan for domestic consumption. This is because the issue was in the context of the Middle East and American instructions for Iran to provide symbolism of military capability to Israel with direct action rather than through proxies. The drama was staged for Iran’s purpose and instructed by America between her clients in the region. These were soft targets between “friendly nations” which would result in no spillover. Pakistan’s military and political brass which is aligned to America was a conduit to the whole episode. The low intensity proxy conflict which has been existent for decades between Iran and Pakistan on the border over sectarian groups was used as a cover to conceal their agency to the American instruction concerning the strike's relationship to the Israeli issue.
Diplomats have now been sent back to each country and relations are as normal before the strikes leaving most analysts scratching their heads and diverted into the wrong issue ie Balochistan instead of Pakistan and Irans agency to the US policy.
To conclude, nothing is as simple as it appears on the surface. The world works on the fundamentals of power and money.
Only Allah Know the Whole Truth.
No comments:
Post a Comment