Iran is such a paradox - a theological utopia and a tyrannical dystopia - both at the same time. Iranian clergy continues to rule for nearly five decades which is not possible in today’s world without compliance and complicity to the Zionist Agenda. They didn’t let Mussadiq or Shah to rule over Iran soon as they conflicted with economic interests of The Agenda. Hence, clergy was installed and Regan paid money to the regime to delay release of US Embassy hostages in Tehran till his inauguration so that he could get credit for it.
Sooner than later TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) & KHACO (Khomeini Always Chickens Out) will come to pass.
So many reasons to support this:
Iran in Roy Casagranda’s opinion is wag the dog situation - a diversion from Epstein saga.
In the eventuality of war between US and Iran, the world economy will take serious hit if oil stops flowing from Straits of Hormuz. Oil prices could soar to a point that we in Pakistan shall be taking bicycles or traditional horse/ donkey carts to reach offices.
With World Cup in June, can US afford to attack Iran and then wrap it up achieving clean break from Iran in three months- highly unlikely. Why would US present China and Russia dreamlike situation by getting embroiled in Iran - something US/ west is doing to Russia in Ukraine. Besides, US has a history of humiliating defeats in protracted wars against Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.
If you wish to track war, track money - Financial Times reported that Iran had offered the U.S. major economic incentives, potentially worth trillions of dollars through investments in its vast oil and gas reserves.
Then there is the cliche - The Devil You Know - why would they take the risk of replacing compliant clergy with Raza Shah or any other puppets when they can’t afford/ don’t want to put boots on ground which can leave Iran in a greater mess if Civil War breaks out. There are so many disenfranchised ethnic groups from Kurds in NE, Arabs in South, Baloch in West, Azerbaijanis in North, Uzbeks in NE and angry leftist Persians in Middle country.
US/ Israel have already taken out the hawks in regime like Sulemani and neutralised proxies like Hizbollah and Hamas. Historically, US/ Israel never went on all out attack on Iran and vice versa. During Hamas conflict in last couple of years, US carried out surgical strikes on Iran and Iran fired few firecrackers on Israel with due warning and reaction time mitigating potential losses. They need subdued Iran as scarecrow in the region to keep Arabs in check and foster this valuable sectarian wedge in ME.
Popular narrative that Israel is coercing US to launch attack on Iran is a smokescreen. Iran doesn’t fall in greater Israel map as mentioned by Huckerby in his infamous rather preposterous interview with Tucker. Besides, Iran hosts second largest Jew population in ME after Israel who enjoy complete religious freedom and live in peace and harmony under the regime as opposed to extremely oppressed Sunnis in the country.
Iran has openly promised ‘no nuclear weapons’ and current belligerency shall pave the way for discussions on lifting sanctions and enabling U.S. investment in Iran’s energy sector.
To conclude, continued public rhetoric from both sides — including references to military buildups and Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities — serves to project strength domestically while preserving the appearance of independence and sovereignty to the Iranian regime as negotiations conclude.
Our favourite buzzword ‘Notion of Victory’ shall prevail on both sides while in reality TACO & KHACO take effect.
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