Wednesday, 15 January 2020
We the people and change
Sunday, 5 January 2020
US-Iran conflict - Part two
Nothing changed in Iran in recent past, however, two major shifts took place in power matrix, Trump and MBS. They seem to get along really well. This change at the helm of affairs affected hitherto serious (unannounced) bonding of US-Israel-Iran trio.
So much happened in recent past. Iran was giving real grief to incompetent Saudi forces through Houthi rebels in Yemen. In September last year, attack on Aramco facility of Abqaiq cost KSA a fortune. It resulted in oil price hike in the world which again benefited Iran more than any other country in the world. Iran is being audacious and lately, pursued her goals tenaciously. Particularly, taking down American contractor in Kirkuk at the eve of new year sparked protests by Sunnis majority against Shia govt of Adel Abdul Mahdi in Baghdad.
Ok pause here and connect the dots from checking ISIS' advance to Kirkuk attack last week, General Qasem Soleimani despite being popular No 2 in Iran was becoming a nuisance for Mr Hssan Rouhani. A theory is also circulating that due to deep rooted covert alliance, US was given a nod by Iran to take him down. Rest all is easy in a country that thrives on grief. Mourning procession and tears are common in Iran. Don't worry too much about that Red Flag unfurled over Jamkaran Mosque of Qoum, these are just antics to vent revenge and nationalist fervor in controlled environments. Iran never had an all out war with either US or Israel, nor will it ever have. It will continue its usual posturing and that's it. Eventually, after a symbolic retaliation, Iran will vow to avenge Qasem Soleimani through proxy war which means you would never get a measure of when and exactly how this revenge will take place. This theory appears much closer to realities on ground.
The other theory is that MBS, has been able to finally create a wedge between traditional friends. With his money and influence, he avenged Houthi and Abqaiq mastermind through third party i.e took down Qasem Soleimani without breaking sweat.
Whichever theory among above is correct, there will be no war in Middle East in coming days and months. Oil prices will soar and both KSA & Iran will make more money.
Funniest and most ludicrous battleground will be set in Pakistan where people with sectoral inclinations will latch on each other for supporting either of KSA or Iran and people with no sect like the scribe will get most abuse from all around.
Only Allah knows the whole Truth.
US-Iran conflict - Part one
Ok seems like its time to make some enemies right at the start of the year.
There is no real propinquity for KSA in Pakistan for the word Saud in its name. However, nearly quarter of our population affiliated to Iran for sectoral reasons is emotional to say the least. Emotions are nemesis of logic. We are born perfect Muslims and we adopt a sect because our parents had one and they had it because their parents had one and we keep picking fights for the rest of our lives defending those sectoral beliefs. A story of 99% of Pakistani Muslims.
So implications for Pakistan in US-Iran brewing conflict are none whatsoever because Pakistan is comfortably lapped in US-KSA corner of the ring. Our side is chosen and clear at the outset. And its not a matter of choice. Since I'm not a diplomat, so I have the advantage of not spinning things in diplomatic language.
US and Iran are not enemies may be because after US and Israel, Iran has third largest jew population in the world who have synagogues, are well settled and move at will between Israel and Iran. Traditionally, gloves never went off between this trio, nor will they in current scenario. If your sectarian red light is on, please leave this useless piece and do something better, for I don't have a sect, so I don't know what it feels like being a person of any sect in a situation like this.
Irani general Qasem Soleimani was instrumental in checking the advances of ISIS in Iraq. An ISIS created by US. Hyped by US and checked by Iran should raise some eye brows in curiosity. Not only that Iraq was gifted to Shia minority but from west of Balochistan till Mediterranean Sea south of Lebanon, for the first time a telling Iran controlled belt was created which was knocking at the doors of Qatar, Bahrain and UAE. Over the past two decades, all this space was allowed to Iran by US in cognizance to Israeli interests in the region. I have no problem with Iran's expansion as long as its not done in the name of God. Political and economic growth and hegemony is every country's right in the Free World.
There is no Sunni world. KSA does not represent sunni Islam. KSA represents Al Saud tribe who somehow got the privilege of looking after Harmain Sharifain. But when you have money, custody of holiest of places, you may tend to expand or challenge corresponding expanding ideology like that of Iran's. So KSA, over the years continued building an air of insecurity among ardent sunni Muslims around the world for its own hegemonic designs in the region. But with very little success except some easy buy offs like Pakistan who could not manage themselves but were smart enough to make a bomb (literally an insurance bond).
To be continued in part two.