Corona - Open letter to PM

After our detailed discussiin on the topic with Respected Syed Hassan Abbas we put down all those points in an open letter to PM containing few practical suggestions:

Dear PM Imran Khan

Your sincerity is praiseworthy and efforts are countless. Still there is room for improvement.

An Overview of Situation.

1. In this natural calamity, one can survive on a piece of bread ( roti) with glass of water. An adult man takes 1/2 kg wheat per day, women and children take 1/4 kg per day. A family of 5 consumes 1.5 kg wheat per day and 45 kg per month, which costs about Rs. 1500. So a family can live in survival conditions in Rs 2000.

2. Current challenge is disease not the food shortage. Focus of the state machinery, media and society is on food provision. So disease prevention may get lesser share than due.

3. Food distributed by public on roadsides is going in the hands of professional beggars instead of deserving and distribution of money through mobile phone is likely to be exploited.

4. So far treatment of confirmed cases is fine but lacks aggressive testing of all contacts.

COVID 19 Misunderstanding of Disease and Death Data

1  Death rates are being estimated as 3% which seems to be incorrect internationally and locally. Independent media is not operating in China, so data may be questionable. Death rates are being calculated from current infected and deaths occurred. This method is incorrect, as current patients cant be counted in this, God forbid if some die and majority will InshAllah recover. So correct way to calculate death rate is counting total no of closed cases. e.g. how many recovered so far, how many died so far and their total is total of closed cases. 

2. In world, as of 4 Apr approx 237,000 have recovered and approx 62,000 died. So it makes 20% death toll world wide. In some countries it is about 30%. In Pakistan 130 recovered and 40 died, so death rate of concluded cases is 30%. InshaAllah it will be much lesser in future.

3. Current cases will conclude after recovery or God forbade death after few days or weeks and only then they can be counted.

4. This highlights the importance of issue of stopping the spread.

5. Hospitals are not enough to deal with already sick people, same is the case with oxygen support and ventilators. So only available option is effective control to prevent spread of  epidemic.

Control Measures

1. Lockdown may continue till zero case is achieved. Only agriculture should be given exception, that too with intensive education of farmers through revenue, agriculture and education departments.

2. All physical contacts of positive cases, their relatives, friends, all arriving travellers from abroad since 15 Feb and their physical contacts must be traced, isolated and tested. It may look overtesting but there is more way out. South Korea with 1/4th population as compared to Pakistan has tested more than half million people. Please test one million, but in 2 weeks, otherwise it will be too late.

Get further testing kits and provide kits to private labs for free testing.

3. Ask wealthy people to spend money in testing of suspected but poor patients. It is more essential than ration. Definitely it will bring them more divine reward. ( Sawab)

4. Utilize all government departments for this epidemic, including teachers, scouts, civil defense. Incorporate private sector especially educated and young manpower from those businesses/industry which are closed including private schools. Put your volunteer force under these skilled people. It will give better results.Military has a wast experience in relief operations. In such a testing time where serving people are helping, the retired and ex serviceman can render a great support. The tiger force or relief force may be made and retired persons may be recalled through DASB to organise the relief work. This will accrue them advantage of having a close coordination with army, their relief experience utilized, easy to interact with administration, no political affiliation, organisation ability exploited, they know how to take precautionary measures, leadership utilized, can motivate and push tiger force to operate in far flung areas. Reservists are good choice and may be recalled and grouped their district basis.

5. Tame media to share hope and beneficial stuff and give more time to health and infectious disease experts instead of non technical and politically biased anchors.

May Allah forgive us and  protect us all.

Syed Hassan Abbas

You can watch the Vlog of above on following link:

https://youtu.be/_VgVNKKGVtM