Change in Attock may change it all

Change is such an elusive drug for a nation whose democracy keeps shuttling between kleptocracy and kakistocracy.

11 points at Minar-e-Pakistan sounded Prime-ministerial but rhetoric is one thing and deliverance is another. PTI leadership should have the stomach to absorb position of advantage that fell in their laps from heavens in Panama Papers. There will be issues concerning distribution of tickets and constituency based differences between those who will get party tickets and those left out.  How PTI leadership handles this issue and how its workforce performs before and on the day of elections will determine the outcome of General Elections 2018.

Take for example my own constituency NA 57 which after 2018 delimitation has become NA 55. PML (N)’s Whip, Sheikh Aftab Ahmed remained undefeated from NA 57 since 1990. In 2002, he could not run for the seat due to graduation degree clause. Resultantly, his son Salman Sarwar had to run but lost against Malik Amin Aslam.

Dynamics of District Attock’s politics are very interesting. Attock’s election mood is quite predictable. In 2002, Q League made a clean sweep from hitherto three NA constituencies (NA 57, 58 & 59). In 2008, Noon, Q & PPP won a seat each. In 2013, Noon bagged two and NA 59 was claimed by independent Zain Elahi son of Major (R) Tahir Sadiq.

Major (R) Tahir Sadiq is brother-in-law of Ch Shujaat Hussain and a politicoholic. He eats, drinks & sleeps politics. Not only his son is MNA from NA 59, his daughter Eman Waseem also holds the office of Chairperson District Attock. Realizing, his in-laws’ growing politically irrelevance, he continued his political struggle of family aggrandizement independently as Major Group and lately, took a leap of political faith cum opportunity and joined PTI in November 2017.

Now the tricky part begins. At the time of his joining PTI, there were three constituencies, but delimitation reduced it to two. In previous arrangement of three NA seats, it was only fair for him to claim two party tickets (for himself (NA 57 or 58) & for his son Zain in NA 59) and third one could have been dished out to longtime PTI loyalists like Malik Amin Aslam. However, there are only two seats now (NA 55 & 56).  In current scenario NA 56 should go to Major Group. Who wins PTI ticket from NA 55 and how the aggrieved party takes it will determine the outcome of this election from Attock District. A quick analysis of results of last two general elections from NA 57 (Now NA 55) suggest only one thing, if change has to take effect, PTI ticket winners and those left out have to show a big heart.  

General Elections 2008				General Elections 2013
Result	Candidate	Party	Votes	Winner	Party	Votes
Winner	Sheikh Aftab Ahemd	PML (N)	38755	Sheikh Aftab Ahemd	PML (N)	59638
Runner up	Malik Amin Aslam	IND	38392	Malik Amin Aslam	PTI	55515
2nd Runner up	Eman Waseem	IND (Major Group)	33975	Major (R) Tahir Sadiq	IND (Major Group)	50878

Now that Major Group has joined PTI, together with runner up (Malik Amin Aslam) of last two elections, they should be able to muster double the votes of Sheikh Aftab Ahmed, only if they put their personal political gains or losses on one side and abide by the party discipline. PTI leadership must also consider sensitivities of constituency politics as however strong, the Tsunamis consist of tiny droplets of water, hence, every drop matters. Whoever, Malik Amin Aslam or Major Group does not get ticket of NA 55, should be promised important advisory role at national level because both are equally capable of delivering at bigger level. Otherwise, margins have been very narrow in previous elections and Attock will keep on waiting for another five years for change. Or change in Attock may change it all.

In the end, formation of government in center is not guaranteed by big jalsas rather it all boils down to the method of constituency politics, party discipline, electioneering and performance of party workers on elections day.   

Only Allah knows the whole Truth.