Sunday 5 January 2020

US-Iran conflict - Part two

Nothing changed in Iran in recent past, however, two major shifts took place in power matrix, Trump and MBS. They seem to get along really well. This change at the helm of affairs affected hitherto serious (unannounced) bonding of US-Israel-Iran trio.
So much happened in recent past. Iran was giving real grief to incompetent Saudi forces through Houthi rebels in Yemen. In September last year, attack on Aramco facility of Abqaiq cost KSA a fortune. It resulted in oil price hike in the world which again benefited Iran more than any other country in the world. Iran is being audacious and lately, pursued her goals tenaciously. Particularly, taking down American contractor in Kirkuk at the eve of new year sparked protests by Sunnis majority against Shia govt of Adel Abdul Mahdi in Baghdad.
Ok pause here and connect the dots from checking ISIS' advance to Kirkuk attack last week, General Qasem Soleimani despite being popular No 2 in Iran was becoming a nuisance for Mr Hssan Rouhani. A theory is also circulating that due to deep rooted covert alliance, US was given a nod by Iran to take him down. Rest all is easy in a country that thrives on grief. Mourning procession and tears are common in Iran. Don't worry too much about that Red Flag unfurled over Jamkaran Mosque of Qoum, these are just antics to vent revenge and nationalist fervor in controlled environments. Iran never had an all out war with either US or Israel, nor will it ever have. It will continue its usual posturing and that's it. Eventually, after a symbolic retaliation, Iran will vow to avenge Qasem Soleimani through proxy war which means you would never get a measure of when and exactly how this revenge will take place. This theory appears much closer to realities on ground. 
The other theory is that MBS, has been able to finally create a wedge between traditional friends. With his money and influence, he avenged Houthi and Abqaiq mastermind through third party i.e took down Qasem Soleimani without breaking sweat.
Whichever theory among above is correct, there will be no war in Middle East in coming days and months. Oil prices will soar and both KSA & Iran will make more money.
Funniest and most ludicrous battleground will be set in Pakistan where people with sectoral inclinations will latch on each other for supporting either of KSA or Iran and people with no sect like the scribe will get most abuse from all around.
Only Allah knows the whole Truth. 

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