Predicting the unpredictable political landscape

Let’s analyse most unpredictable political mind game and dare to predict on 26 March instead of waiting in anticipation for the magician to pull the rabbit out of the hat just to utter oohs, wows and awws on 27 March. 

Parliamentary democracy stinks and it couldn’t get any worse. Peoples’ representatives (not anymore) have made a deal with the devil. Don’t think outcome of VONC will have any positive for the country though win-win for IK.

IK with countless flaws and mistakes was running out of steam and popularity. At one point, it seemed he would get next term but with problem after problem and poor decision after decision, hopes of getting next term were plummeting rapidly. Along came VONC saga. It puffed new life in his politics. Suddenly, his disgruntled supporters like scribe found themselves absolutely clear in their political alignment when they had to choose between Axis of Evil (SS-AAZ-MFR) and IK.

Three scenarios. 

IK wins then he will have same numbers (incapacitated Govt). Besides blackmailing allies and sellable electables, the sword will keep hanging over his head. i.e. crippled Govt with threat of VONC. Conclusion: IK’s win in VONC will not do as much good as other outcomes given below. 

If PDM wins, it can’t govern. Unnatural, unholy and unclean alliance will only exhaust its viability in tug of war for more power, more corruption, more relief from cases, more every negative thing one could imagine. They are all drooling over little bit of money accumulated in Govt treasury over the last four years under extremely unfavourable economic conditions and escape from jail. How romantic!!!

And will IK let them bask in Isloo Sunshine? Highly unlikely. It will pave the way for his next tenure with heavy mandate. 

Third scenario and most likely one. Dissolution of assemblies/ resignation and early elections. No institution, no establishment (local and international), no mafia, no judiciary, no power hub, no stereotype media, nothing meaningful in this country seems to favour him. Probably IK has opted for ideal scenario by going to people and people have embraced him so enthusiastically that he can't believe his luck. Every other stakeholder has abandoned him but people have not. It was people who brought him to power in 2018 and it is people who will bring him to power with greater majority to rule without any strings attached. So early elections are what we are going to have which seems good for Pakistan. Btw the expendable Punjab Assembly is going. Even if this prediction cum opportunity goes begging, at least the prediction that suits Pakistan the best is shared with you.

Only Allah knows the whole Truth.